A Surprising Trend in Bitcoin's Price: Three Times Since Late 2023, a Familiar Pattern Has Emerged, Triggering Corrections
Key Takeaway: Since late 2023, a recurring pattern has emerged in Bitcoin's price, causing corrections three times. This pattern involves long-term investors selling their holdings, putting pressure on the ongoing bull market. The key moving averages, such as the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 365-day exponential moving average (EMA), act as crucial support levels. When Bitcoin briefly falls below $100,000, it tests these levels, and history suggests that a correction may follow. But here's where it gets controversial...
The Controversy: Some argue that this pattern is simply a natural part of the market's cycle, while others believe it indicates a deeper issue. The question remains: Is this a temporary dip or a sign of a larger market shift?
The Pattern: Since late 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three notable waves of selling by long-term holders, defined as investors who have held their Bitcoin for at least 155 days. This group holds approximately 14.4 million BTC, down from a peak of over 14.7 million BTC in July. Each wave has added downward pressure, leading to price consolidation or corrections of 10% or more after a period of rallying prices.
The Support Levels: The 365-day SMA and EMA currently sit at $102,055 and $99,924, respectively. These levels have been crucial support points in the past, and when Bitcoin dips below them, it can trigger a correction. For instance, in August 2024, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the EMA, and in April, it dropped below both moving averages before reclaiming them.
The Selling Pressure: The selling pressure comes from long-term holders who are exiting their positions. As these investors trim their holdings, they add pressure to the market, potentially causing a correction. The question remains: What triggers these selling waves? Is it a specific event, or is it a natural part of the market's cycle?
The Future: As Bitcoin continues to navigate this pattern, investors and analysts are left to wonder: Will this be a temporary dip or a sign of a larger market shift? The answer may lie in the behavior of long-term holders and the support levels provided by the moving averages. But this is the part most people miss...
What to Do Next: Stay tuned for further analysis and insights as we continue to monitor this developing trend. Your thoughts and comments are welcome! Do you agree or disagree with this interpretation? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.
